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September was a month that stopped a lot of people mid-conversation. Just 463 properties sold across Greater Victoria — down 16.4 per cent from the same month last year and 21.7 per cent fewer than August. Single family home sales fell 17.3 per cent year over year to 239, condos dropped 11 per cent to 137, and townhouse sales slid 26.4 per cent to just 53. Meanwhile, active listings climbed to 3,811 — edging up 3.2 per cent from September 2025 and 4.1 per cent from August. By the BCREA’s own measure, we crossed below the 17 per cent sales-to-active-listings threshold that defines a buyer’s market. Outside of the early pandemic months, that hasn’t happened since January 2015.

On the ground in Oak Bay and across the core, I’m seeing something I haven’t experienced in years: qualified buyers taking their time, negotiating firmly, and walking away from overpriced listings. Sellers who priced correctly in the first week still attracted strong interest, but those who clung to spring pricing expectations sat. The mood shift from July and August was palpable, and it’s creating real opportunity for buyers who are prepared to act while inventory is at its seasonal peak.

Sales Activity

Every major property type recorded fewer sales in September compared to the same month last year. Single family homes led the decline at 239 sales, down 17.3 per cent from the 289 sold in September 2025 and well below August 2026’s 309. Condominiums saw 137 sales versus 154 a year ago, an 11 per cent drop. Townhouses were hit hardest on a percentage basis, falling 26.4 per cent from 72 to just 53. The total residential count of 438 units (excluding non-residential property types) was nearly 17 per cent below last September’s 527. It’s important to note that one slow month doesn’t define a market — but it does demand attention, especially heading into a period when listings typically thin out.

Unit sales by property type — Sep 2025 vs. Aug 2026 vs. Sep 2026. Source: VREB MLS®

Inventory & Market Balance

Active listings stood at 3,811 at the end of September, up from 3,662 in August and 3,694 a year ago. While the year-over-year increase of 3.2 per cent may seem modest, it’s the combination of rising supply and falling demand that shifted the market’s character. The sales-to-active-listings ratio dropped below 17 per cent — the BCREA threshold for a buyer’s market — meaning there is now downward pressure on prices. For context, we spent most of the past decade firmly in balanced or seller’s territory. Whether this is a one-month blip or the start of a sustained shift remains to be seen, but the signal is clear: buyers have more leverage than they’ve had in years.

Active listings at month end — Sep 2025, Aug 2026, Sep 2026. Source: VREB MLS®

Benchmark Prices

The MLS® HPI benchmark for a single family home in the Victoria Core slipped to $1,280,100 in September — a 2.0 per cent decline from $1,306,500 a year ago and down from August’s $1,301,800. On the condo side, the Core benchmark actually ticked up 1.0 per cent year over year to $547,800, from $542,200 in September 2025, although it eased from August’s $553,600. The townhouse Core benchmark came in at $829,400, down 1.7 per cent from last year’s $843,900. The message is nuanced: single family values are softening, condos are holding, and the gap between property types is narrowing.

In Oak Bay, the single family benchmark sits at $1,726,800 — still the highest in the region but down from $1,780,300 twelve months ago, a 3.0 per cent decline. Across Greater Victoria as a whole, the single family benchmark is $1,150,300, off 1.5 per cent from $1,167,400. The Westshore single family benchmark of $1,019,800 remains the most accessible entry point, dipping 1.2 per cent from $1,032,000. Peninsula condos bucked the trend with a 3.4 per cent year-over-year increase to $639,900, while Westshore condos fell 4.0 per cent to $478,800. Regional variation matters enormously right now — the averages mask very different stories at the neighbourhood level.

MLS® HPI benchmark prices by region — Sep 2025 vs. Sep 2026. Source: VREB MLS®

Where the Action Was: Sales by Municipality

Greater Victoria’s neighbourhoods don’t move as one. The table below breaks down every residential transaction recorded in September by municipality — split by property type — and grouped by area. The colour intensity on each unit count reflects relative activity: green is lower activity, red is highest.

One deliberate choice in how this data is presented: Victoria and Victoria West are reported separately, even though VREB’s Mark I table combines them. The Johnson Street Bridge is a genuine boundary for buyers — someone drawn to Vic West’s waterfront proximity, walkability, and converted industrial character is making a fundamentally different decision than a buyer focused on Victoria’s downtown condo towers or heritage neighbourhoods. The figures here are drawn from the Mark II table, which segregates the two areas.

Waterfront properties across all districts are shown as a single row, as VREB does not attribute them back to individual municipalities in their published data.

Heat intensity based on total residential units sold. Victoria and Victoria West reported separately using VREB Mark II data. Waterfront properties reported as cross-district aggregate. Source: VREB MLS® September 2026 Statistics Package.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

If you’re buying

This is the most favourable buying environment Greater Victoria has offered in more than a decade. With 3,811 active listings and just 438 residential sales, you have genuine choice and genuine negotiating power. The sales-to-active-listings ratio has dipped below 17 per cent, which by BCREA’s analysis puts downward pressure on prices. As Chair Kyne noted, inventory typically thins heading into winter, so the diversity of options you see today may not be available come January. If your financing is in order, this is a moment to act thoughtfully — not urgently, but deliberately. Condo values in the Core are holding steady (benchmark up 1 per cent year over year), making that segment relatively firm, while single family homes are offering more room for negotiation with the Core benchmark down 2 per cent.

If you’re selling

September was a reality check. With sales down 16.4 per cent year over year and inventory rising, pricing strategy has never been more important. Homes priced at current market value are still selling — the average days to sell for residential properties was 43 days for single family homes, essentially flat from last year. But overpriced listings are languishing. If your property has been on the market for more than a few weeks without meaningful activity, it’s time to have an honest conversation about where the market actually is — not where it was six months ago. The single family Core benchmark has pulled back $21,700 from August alone. Accuracy in pricing is your best tool in this market.

The waterfront and Oak Bay micro-market

Waterfront properties across all districts recorded 40 sales in September with a combined volume of $68.2 million and an average sale price of $1.70 million. That’s a striking 54 per cent increase in unit sales compared to September 2025’s 13 waterfront transactions, suggesting that buyers are seizing an opportunity in premium segments while the broader market softens. In Oak Bay specifically, 21 residential properties changed hands — 13 single family homes, 6 condos, and 2 townhouses — generating $28.5 million in total volume at an average of $1.36 million per sale. The Oak Bay single family benchmark sits at $1,726,800, down 3.0 per cent from $1,780,300 a year ago. At this level, Oak Bay remains the most premium neighbourhood in Greater Victoria, but the slight softening creates an opening for buyers who have been priced out of this market in recent years.

Watch This Month’s Market Update

I break down the September numbers in detail in this month’s video — including what I’m seeing on the ground in Oak Bay and across Greater Victoria’s waterfront market.

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Statistics are sourced from the Victoria Real Estate Board MLS® and are believed to be accurate but are not guaranteed. The MLS® Home Price Index benchmark is produced by the Canadian Real Estate Association. Victoria and Victoria West figures are derived from the VREB Mark II Statistics Package. This report is prepared by Stephen Foster, REALTOR®, Stephen Foster Personal Real Estate Corporation, brokered by Coldwell Banker Oceanside Real Estate. Not intended to solicit properties currently listed for sale.